ARPEGE system 5 - Scores

This page contains the Arpege system 5 scores, calculated over the hincast period (1991-2014). The deterministic (correlation anomalies, bias, RMSE) and probabilistic (Area Under the Curve) scores are presented in the form of spatial maps (grid point scores) or aggregated areas. They have been performed for each month (7 lead times) and each 3-months period (5 lead times). The reference datasets are the GPCP analysis for the precipitation and ERA Interim for the other parameters

Mapped products


1-month and 3-month maps

1-month and 3-month ROC scores for the upper and the lower terciles (and quintiles), correlation anomalies, bias and RMSE

1-month and 3-month diagrams

ROC curves and reliability diagrams (1-month and 3-month forecast) for the upper and the lower terciles (and quintiles) over oceanic and continental areas. Historical series over the hindcast period

Synthesis tables

Synthesis tables for ROC scores (1-month and 3-month forecast)

Modes of variability

1-month and 3-month diagrams

Probabilistic and deterministic scores (ROC curves and time series correclations) over the hindcast period


Synthesis tables

Synthesis tables for all lead-times of all initialization months.

Weather regimes

1-month and 3-month diagrams

Probabilistic and deterministic scores (ROC curves and time series correclations) over the hindcast period

Synthesis tables

Synthesis tables for all lead-times of all initialization months.