Seasonal forecast models - Scores

This page is dedicated to the verification of the seasonal forcasting models. The calculation is based on the hindcast period (1993-2016).
Deterministic scores and Probabilistic scores are displayed on maps (grid point scores) and over specific areas. They are available for individual month (7 lead-time) and the 12 overlapping seasons (4 lead-times). Analysis data provides from GPCP for rain and ERA-Interim for other parameters.

1-month and 3-month score maps

Brier, Roc, msss, correlation and ratio scores for upper and lower terciles and 2 extreme categories.


Scores over specific areas

ROC curves and reliability diagrams (1-month and 3-month forecast) for the upper and the lower terciles (and quintiles) over oceanic and continental areas.


Summary table over specific areas

Modes of variability

1-month and 3-month score charts

Probabilistic scores (ROC curves and reliability diagram) et déterministic scores (temporal correlations) over the hindcast period


1-month and 3-month score charts for sea level pressure modes of variability

Probabilistic scores (ROC curves and reliability diagram) et déterministic scores (temporal correlations) over the hindcast period


Summary table

Summary table for all lead-times of all initialization months.


Summary table for sea level pressure modes

Summary table for all lead-times of all initialization months.

Weather regimes

1-month and 3-month diagrams

Probabilistic scores (ROC curves and reliability diagram) et déterministic scores (temporal correlations) over the hindcast period


Summary table

Summary table for all lead-times of all initialization months.